NZ at Risk of Population Stagnation — Here’s What’s Really Happening

Unveiling the Picture Painted by the New Data

In the past, immigration to New Zealand was so massive that it was responsible for almost the entire population increase (at least 85%). However, the arrivals have decreased from 138,900 to just 12,400 for newly arriving immigrants within a year, thus the net gain becomes very low when compared to previous peaks.

At the same time, there was a notable increase in people leaving the country. The total number of people moving out of the country amounts to around 126,400, which is a 10% increase compared to the previous year.

It is alarming that a considerable number of those leaving are New Zealand nationals—statistics for the 12-month period ending September 2025 indicate that around 72,700 citizen emigrants were recorded.

The natural population increase (which is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths) is still the factor in excess of population growth, although it is at a very low level—recently it is about 21,000 a year.

Urban Areas vs. Rural Areas: Not Everywhere Is Affected Equally

The most significant cities, like Auckland, Waikato, and Canterbury, are still in a growth phase. However, some other regions are in trouble: Wellington and Taranaki are signs of stagnated populations, while Nelson, Gisborne, and Hawke’s Bay are indeed experiencing reductions.

The district that has doubled its population in the fastest period is Selwyn, where the growth of about 2.4% is attributed to both natural increase and limited immigration.

Reasons for the Importance

• Migration dependency: New Zealand’s population boom of the past was mainly due to immigration. However, if the migration pipeline slows down, the country might end up having a stagnant economy if the birth rates do not pick up then.
• Economic implications: Slower population growth could lead to challenges in preparing and sustaining economic resilience over the long run through a reduction in labor supply and consumer demand.
• Aging population: The fertility rate is falling; consequently, the country may not be able to keep its workforce capable, and also, its aging population well.

What Measures Should the Policymakers and Immigration Stakeholders Take?

• Re-assess the immigration policies: Migration has been so critical in support of growth, thus, a more bold and smarter targeting of the policies might be necessary.
• Support for the developers of the regional area: The state could distribute the population more on a wider scale through promotions aimed at housing and employment in the stagnating areas.
• Recommendations for family growth: The measures to support young families—childcare, housing, and parental leave, for example—might raise the number of births.
• Monitor and change, if needed: The demographic shifts are unpredictable; constant data collection will be indispensable in formulating durable strategies.

At Abhinav Immigration Services, we keep a vigilant eye on global demographic trends, including New Zealand, as they have a direct influence on migration, visa policy, and long-term planning. Our expertise not only leads you through the visa procedures but also the broader trends that determine the choices of migrant destinations.

For your daily supply of immigration news and insights, follow us on Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, and X at Abhinav Immigration Services.